After killing thousands of mob to get a card, i asked myself: what is the probability of not getting a card?
The complete formula is explained in the imagen, but we are interested when x=0 (probability of not getting card), so
=(1-p) ^(n-x), n= deaths; x= successes; p=(% drop card)
Example: what is the probability of having 0 mini boss card after killing 3000, n=3000; x=0, p=0,1%=0,001
meaning 4,97% of not having card. It is more likely that you already have a card.
Example 2:what is the probability of having 0 mvp card after 5000 killing. n=5000; x=0; p=0,02%=0,0002. So
Meaning 36% of not having card. Bad luck
Example3: what is the probability of having 0 vicious bow +10 (with mechanic) with 600 vicious bow +0. n=600; x=0;p=0,299%=0,00299
meaning 16,6%of bad luck.
You have to be positive, in the end after hundread of thousands you have to fall rare card or uninstall novaro before.